I am going to go on record here with a bold statement - Nintendo will go bust within the next 10 years.
I know what you are all thinking - I must be off my rocker! The company that made the best selling games console of the last 20 years are going to be bankrupt, thats just bizarre!
Well there is method to my madness, and I shall attempt to explain it now.
In the current generation of video games consoles, you have 3 choices - PlayStation 3, Xbox 360 and Nintendo Wii. My personal preference is the PS3. The 360, while not appealing to me one iota (see note 1), is still a viable console and not the subject of my ire. Nope, that is all reserved for the Wii.
You see, if you rewind to 20 years ago, Nintendo was top of the pile, just as it is now. They had the NES, which had the majority share of the market. Back then, video games were a niche market, however. The main demographic for them were teenage boys. Sure, there were some adults, and girls, that played them, but it was mainly hormone-ridden, testosterone fueled adolescent males that made up the bulk of the consumer.
The mere idea back then of having more than one games console in your house was ludicrous, so people were forced to pick one, and stick to it. This trend actually continued for years, I believe right up until the previous generation of PS2's and Gamecubes.
As the 90s wore on, Nintendo released the Super Nintendo, which only really faced competition from the Sega MegaDrive, and even then the mighty Nintendo machine rolled onward.
It wasn't until around 1995-6 that Nintendo made their first misjudgment. We all know the story of how Nintendo went into business with Sony to create a CD-Rom adapter for their SNES, and how Nintendo didn't like the way it was going and so pulled out, leaving Sony to take everything they had learned to create the first PlayStation. Nintendo decided to stick with cartridges for their SNES successor, the N64.
While by no means a commercial failure, Nintendo failed to recognise the threat that Sony posed with their new CD-Rom console, and as a result they lost out on sales to the cheaper and technologically superior PSX, even losing Final Fantasy, a franchise that had been one of their biggest sellers on the NES and SNES.
It has taken them over 10 years to reclaim their place atop the videogame throne. The GameCube came and went, and the Wii was born.
Throughout their tenure, even when losing out to PSX and PS2, Nintendo still had hardcore fans. Franchises like Mario and Zelda, as well as third party developed games like GoldenEye and Banjo-Kazooie, were always big sellers. They managed to survive comfortable due to this hardcore fanbase, as well as their domination of the handheld market with their Gameboy Advance and Nintedo DS series.
When the Wii was announced, people started to question Nintendo's judgment once again. The console was seeming to do everything it could to alienate the hardcore gaming community that had supported Nintendo throughout the less successful years of N64 and Gamecube. The Wii as it stands now is a child's toy. It has sold a large number of units to people who have never played games before. Grandma's and under 5's can now play together, leaving the hardcore former fan base to defect to either Xbox or PS3.
It wasn't just the gamers that saw what was happening either. Rare, one of the top 3rd party developers that had been with Nintendo for years, did what Squaresoft chose to do years ago, and jumped ship.
One of the issues affecting this growth is that the number of games bought for the Wii is significantly less that one would expect given the number of console sales. The reason for this, I speculate, is that once Granny and Little Timmy have their shiny new Wii, it comes with Wii Sports, which is the game that these people play. They don't need to spend more money on the new Metroid/Mario/Smash Bros/Zelda games, because they won't play them.
The main exception to this is Wii Fit, as although it is sold as a game seperate from the Wii, once it has been purchased, no more games are needed. Wii Fit + Wii Sports is all that will ever be needed.
That's not to say that no hardcore gamers own a Wii, many do. Not many own just a Wii, however. They may have a Wii and an Xbox, or a Wii and a PS3, but either way once thing is certain - they do not class the Wii as their main console. They chose to buy a PS3 or an Xbox, and the Wii was a cheap backup to use for the 1 or 2 occasional good games or to entertain younger siblings/girlfriends or to use at parties.
This may not paint such a bleak picture for Nintendo, as I'm sure they couldn't give a toss whether the people who buy their consoles are gamers or grandmas. At the moment, they are right. Its the future that should worry them.
In 5 years time, more or less, Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo will release their successors to the current generation of consoles. Sony and Microsoft can rest assured that, assuming they both stick to what they know, they will sell consoles. The PS4 and Xbox720 or whatever they end up being called will be commercial successes.
Nintendo will have a tough choice to make. On one hand, they have the hardcore gamers that they so easily brushed aside with the Wii. Do they make a console for them? Or do they make a Wii version 2 to keep the Grannys happy?
Either way they are fucked. They no longer have a hardcore fanbase to cater for, as they have all jumped ship to Sony or Microsoft. Gamers are fickle creatures, and once you shun them it takes a miracle to get them back. The only way they could do it is if each new Nintendo console was free.
As for the grannies and kiddies (I refuse to use the phrase "casual gamers" as it makes me want to gag at the mere idea), this road is no less bumpy. The problem here will be the same as the current one regarding games. They don't need anything new. Why would they spend money to buy another console when they can still sit around and play Wii Sports and Wii Fit? They aren't going to.
So Nintendo's next console will be a flop. It will most certainly be a worse seller than the N64. They will go into administration and end up bankrupt or being bought out by Sony or Microsoft.
It's like when a really good band decides to change their sound to appeal to a new audience, whilst pissing off the current fans who thought their old sound was perfectly fine, kinda like Green Day did with American Idiot. It's great when it happens but when everyone gets off the bandwagon and moves on to some other band, changing your musical style back to how it used to be won't work because you've lost all your fans already.
The motion sensor gimmick is their best friend right now, but it will stab them in the back in the future.
Anyways, thats my rant for this time, peace out and if you actually read this then please comment, whether you agree or disagree or have no opinion.
(Writer's note 1)
Just a quick note to explain why I dislike the Xbox. First, the controller feels uncomfortable to hold in my opinion.
Second, there are no exclusives that appeal to me. 90% of games are available on PS3 as well, and the ones that aren't are generic first-person shooters.
Sunday, 28 February 2010
Monday, 11 January 2010
TNA vs WWE and the return of the Monday Night Wars
Last monday was the 4th of January, and was supposed to be a time of great celebration in the eyes of wrestling fans. TNA was airing a 3-hour special live iMPACT!, featuring the debut of Hulk Hogan. Meanwhile, the WWE featured the return of Bret Hart after 12 years. As a pure wrestling fan, it should have been a tough choice.
What actually happened, however, was a farce.
WWE Raw was awful. They must have treated TNA as a joke. If the rumours are to be believed, Bret Hart was likely going to host that episode of Raw anyway. And truth be told, apart from the opening segment with Bret and HBK, and the closing segment with Bret and Vince, the rest of the show was mediocre at best. We had a fairly good match with DX and Jerishow, but unfortunately it's a match which we have seen many times in the last few weeks. Other than that, there really was nothing worth noting at all.
TNA had a fairly solid show, some excellent matches as well as many surprise appearances. The nWo reunited for the night, as well as camera appearances for Ric Flair, Jeff Hardy, Shannon Moore, Val Venis, Orlando Jordan and Eric Bischoff. However, all of the cameos and whatnot seemed to overshadow the actual TNA product, that being one of solid in-ring work and good matches.
Unfortunately, many more people tuned in to watch Raw than TNA. In fact, more people watched that particular episode of Raw than have watched any WWE show since 2001.
My concern is this: TNA is going to become the new WCW.
A few months ago, before they announced the partnership with Hulk Hogan, TNA was a breath of fresh air. It's no secret that the WWE has become stale. Even superstars like Chris Jericho have said in interviews that he thinks that the WWE is getting repetitive. Every week, on all three brands, you would have the same matches, same storylines, same characters. I could pretty much predict each weeks show.
Chavo vs Hornswoggle
DX vs Jerishow
Cena vs Orton
Undertaker vs Punk
Batista vs Rey Mysterio
These were the matches that were taking place, almost guaranteed.
In TNA at that time, things were really looking up. Kurt Angle had just turned face, resulting in a fantastic feud with Demond Wolfe. AJ Styles was TNA champion, defending in a 3-Way match against Daniels and Samoa Joe in a match that was just as good as their encounter 4 years prior. The knockouts, for the most part, did their job - Beautiful People as eye candy, Hamada/Sarita/Alyssa Flash/Kong for the actual wrestling ability. Even the X-Division recieved a shake-up, with Amazing Red gaining the title and new additions like D'Angelo Dinero arriving.
What I am getting at is, TNA was a wrestling show. It had stupid storylines, and it did have it's fair share of over-rated, undeserving "stars" (I'm looking at you, Bobby Lashley!), but in general it was... oh, whats that word that the WWE like to use... Oh, I know - Entertaining! For a company that calls itself World Wrestling Entertainment, it sure wasn't showing a whole lot of wrestling, nor providing very much entertainment.
TNA were never pretentious enough to label their wrestlers as "superstars". They didn't delude themselves by declaring their product as "sports entertainment". They were a wrestling company, and they employed wrestlers.
Fast Forward to present day. The 3-hour live iMPACT! airs, and something's not quite right. The Steel Asylum match, one which usually involves a whole bunch of crazy spots from the X-Division guys, ends in a DQ? We get long, drawn out speeches from Hogan, Bischoff, Jarrett, Nash and Waltman. Surpise guests are showing up left, right and centre. Granted, all of them caused the initial reaction of "OMG its so-and-s0", or in Ric Flair's case just a simple "Woooooo!" Even Jeff Hardy, a man who I have never been a fan of, was a nice surprise. (see NB1).
However, all of these new faces only served to get in the way of the very thing that sets TNA aside from the WWE - the wrestling. The matches we saw were solid, just not very memorable. There was a definite sense of rushed-ness about every match, in that they were trying to hurry along so that they had enough time to fit in backstage appearances from the likes of Orlando Jordan and Val Venis. The Desmond Wolfe/Pope match was lost somewhere in the midst of it all. Even AJ Styles vs Kurt Angle, for the TNA world title, lost out on being the main event of the show. Instead we get to see Mick Foley get beaten up by Hall, Nash and X-Pac. Really, TNA? That's how you want to end the biggest show in your company's history?
Which brings me to the most important issue of all: Can TNA compete with the WWE on a full-time basis?
Honestly, no. Not yet.
You see, when WCW competed with the WWF, they did so by showcasing their strengths and hiding their weaknesses. Their strengths were solid wrestling, cruiserweights and the like. Their weaknesses were lack of major star power, which they made up for by raiding the WWF for their top talent, and by creating new superstars of their own (Goooooooollldbeerrrrrrg!).
TNA have done the opposite. They have hidden their strengths, such as the X-Division, Knockouts and top performers like Angle, AJ, Beer Money, Wolfe, Pope, Morgan etc, and they have replaced them with the exact same people that WCW signed 15 or so years ago!
Just to reiterate:
15 years ago, WCW needed stars.
WCW signed top stars of their time from WWF.
Now, TNA needs stars.
They sign the same people WCW did, that were stars 15 years ago!
Imagine if, back in 1994, WCW had made the mistake of, rather than sign Hogan, Nash, Hall etc, they had signed stars from 1979. People would laugh them out of business faster than I can hit the mute button whenever Michael Cole starts talking!
What TNA need to do is ditch the deadweight. Hogan, old as he is, is still a big enough star to keep on. Same can be said for the likes of Foley, Nash, Steiner and Flair. However, that leaves a long list of new faces that could and should be pink-slipped immediately. The Nasty Boys, Hall, X-Pac, Val Venis, Orlando Jordan... even younger stars that have been there longer, such as Bobby Lashley.
Next thing they need to do is sign someone relevant. Someone that is a top star now. Someone that a 12 year old can flick TNA on and recognise. I'm talking major star, I'm talking Triple H, Cena, Undertaker, Jericho, Orton... These are the top guys in the WWE today. Like them or not, all of them are big enough names that it would make people change channel. Unfortunately, WWE has learnt its lesson from 15 years ago, and as such all wrestlers have 90-day no-compete clauses in their contracts, meaning that if they are fired or resign from the WWE, they cannot wrestle for another organisation for 90 days, which is enough time for WWE to replace and recycle them.
Even so, if they want to really take it to WWE, TNA need to sign some major names. Cena is this generation's Hulk Hogan. Not that I want to see Cena in TNA. Or WWE for that matter. Fuck Cena.
Anyways, thats enough ranting for today.
NOTES
NB1 - Jeff Hardy
I have never been a Jeff Hardy fan. I think his wrestling skills leave much to be desired, but the guy will take a crazy risk. In the WWE, his over-the-top approach gained him the support of 12-year old boys and their mothers all over the world.
In TNA, however, I might just warm to Jeff. If they keep him in the X-Division, and they don't shove him down our throats on a weekly basis, and they let him do his crazy spots in a crazy match with 12 other X-Division guys... It just might work. Maybe.
Just don't let him wear the stupid facepaint. Seriously, that was pathetic.
NB2 - WWE superstars that don't suck.
The list of wrestlers in WWE that aren't actually that bad is getting smaller. Triple H, Shawn Michaels, Jericho, Kane, Big Show, John Morrison, Miz, Edge...
In fact, scratch HHH and HBK off that list, as they have become too repetitive in recent months. They can come back once DX split up.
Alrighty folks, that's my first rant out of the way. Check back soon for my next post.
Peace out, yo!
Rollsy
What actually happened, however, was a farce.
WWE Raw was awful. They must have treated TNA as a joke. If the rumours are to be believed, Bret Hart was likely going to host that episode of Raw anyway. And truth be told, apart from the opening segment with Bret and HBK, and the closing segment with Bret and Vince, the rest of the show was mediocre at best. We had a fairly good match with DX and Jerishow, but unfortunately it's a match which we have seen many times in the last few weeks. Other than that, there really was nothing worth noting at all.
TNA had a fairly solid show, some excellent matches as well as many surprise appearances. The nWo reunited for the night, as well as camera appearances for Ric Flair, Jeff Hardy, Shannon Moore, Val Venis, Orlando Jordan and Eric Bischoff. However, all of the cameos and whatnot seemed to overshadow the actual TNA product, that being one of solid in-ring work and good matches.
Unfortunately, many more people tuned in to watch Raw than TNA. In fact, more people watched that particular episode of Raw than have watched any WWE show since 2001.
My concern is this: TNA is going to become the new WCW.
A few months ago, before they announced the partnership with Hulk Hogan, TNA was a breath of fresh air. It's no secret that the WWE has become stale. Even superstars like Chris Jericho have said in interviews that he thinks that the WWE is getting repetitive. Every week, on all three brands, you would have the same matches, same storylines, same characters. I could pretty much predict each weeks show.
Chavo vs Hornswoggle
DX vs Jerishow
Cena vs Orton
Undertaker vs Punk
Batista vs Rey Mysterio
These were the matches that were taking place, almost guaranteed.
In TNA at that time, things were really looking up. Kurt Angle had just turned face, resulting in a fantastic feud with Demond Wolfe. AJ Styles was TNA champion, defending in a 3-Way match against Daniels and Samoa Joe in a match that was just as good as their encounter 4 years prior. The knockouts, for the most part, did their job - Beautiful People as eye candy, Hamada/Sarita/Alyssa Flash/Kong for the actual wrestling ability. Even the X-Division recieved a shake-up, with Amazing Red gaining the title and new additions like D'Angelo Dinero arriving.
What I am getting at is, TNA was a wrestling show. It had stupid storylines, and it did have it's fair share of over-rated, undeserving "stars" (I'm looking at you, Bobby Lashley!), but in general it was... oh, whats that word that the WWE like to use... Oh, I know - Entertaining! For a company that calls itself World Wrestling Entertainment, it sure wasn't showing a whole lot of wrestling, nor providing very much entertainment.
TNA were never pretentious enough to label their wrestlers as "superstars". They didn't delude themselves by declaring their product as "sports entertainment". They were a wrestling company, and they employed wrestlers.
Fast Forward to present day. The 3-hour live iMPACT! airs, and something's not quite right. The Steel Asylum match, one which usually involves a whole bunch of crazy spots from the X-Division guys, ends in a DQ? We get long, drawn out speeches from Hogan, Bischoff, Jarrett, Nash and Waltman. Surpise guests are showing up left, right and centre. Granted, all of them caused the initial reaction of "OMG its so-and-s0", or in Ric Flair's case just a simple "Woooooo!" Even Jeff Hardy, a man who I have never been a fan of, was a nice surprise. (see NB1).
However, all of these new faces only served to get in the way of the very thing that sets TNA aside from the WWE - the wrestling. The matches we saw were solid, just not very memorable. There was a definite sense of rushed-ness about every match, in that they were trying to hurry along so that they had enough time to fit in backstage appearances from the likes of Orlando Jordan and Val Venis. The Desmond Wolfe/Pope match was lost somewhere in the midst of it all. Even AJ Styles vs Kurt Angle, for the TNA world title, lost out on being the main event of the show. Instead we get to see Mick Foley get beaten up by Hall, Nash and X-Pac. Really, TNA? That's how you want to end the biggest show in your company's history?
Which brings me to the most important issue of all: Can TNA compete with the WWE on a full-time basis?
Honestly, no. Not yet.
You see, when WCW competed with the WWF, they did so by showcasing their strengths and hiding their weaknesses. Their strengths were solid wrestling, cruiserweights and the like. Their weaknesses were lack of major star power, which they made up for by raiding the WWF for their top talent, and by creating new superstars of their own (Goooooooollldbeerrrrrrg!).
TNA have done the opposite. They have hidden their strengths, such as the X-Division, Knockouts and top performers like Angle, AJ, Beer Money, Wolfe, Pope, Morgan etc, and they have replaced them with the exact same people that WCW signed 15 or so years ago!
Just to reiterate:
15 years ago, WCW needed stars.
WCW signed top stars of their time from WWF.
Now, TNA needs stars.
They sign the same people WCW did, that were stars 15 years ago!
Imagine if, back in 1994, WCW had made the mistake of, rather than sign Hogan, Nash, Hall etc, they had signed stars from 1979. People would laugh them out of business faster than I can hit the mute button whenever Michael Cole starts talking!
What TNA need to do is ditch the deadweight. Hogan, old as he is, is still a big enough star to keep on. Same can be said for the likes of Foley, Nash, Steiner and Flair. However, that leaves a long list of new faces that could and should be pink-slipped immediately. The Nasty Boys, Hall, X-Pac, Val Venis, Orlando Jordan... even younger stars that have been there longer, such as Bobby Lashley.
Next thing they need to do is sign someone relevant. Someone that is a top star now. Someone that a 12 year old can flick TNA on and recognise. I'm talking major star, I'm talking Triple H, Cena, Undertaker, Jericho, Orton... These are the top guys in the WWE today. Like them or not, all of them are big enough names that it would make people change channel. Unfortunately, WWE has learnt its lesson from 15 years ago, and as such all wrestlers have 90-day no-compete clauses in their contracts, meaning that if they are fired or resign from the WWE, they cannot wrestle for another organisation for 90 days, which is enough time for WWE to replace and recycle them.
Even so, if they want to really take it to WWE, TNA need to sign some major names. Cena is this generation's Hulk Hogan. Not that I want to see Cena in TNA. Or WWE for that matter. Fuck Cena.
Anyways, thats enough ranting for today.
NOTES
NB1 - Jeff Hardy
I have never been a Jeff Hardy fan. I think his wrestling skills leave much to be desired, but the guy will take a crazy risk. In the WWE, his over-the-top approach gained him the support of 12-year old boys and their mothers all over the world.
In TNA, however, I might just warm to Jeff. If they keep him in the X-Division, and they don't shove him down our throats on a weekly basis, and they let him do his crazy spots in a crazy match with 12 other X-Division guys... It just might work. Maybe.
Just don't let him wear the stupid facepaint. Seriously, that was pathetic.
NB2 - WWE superstars that don't suck.
The list of wrestlers in WWE that aren't actually that bad is getting smaller. Triple H, Shawn Michaels, Jericho, Kane, Big Show, John Morrison, Miz, Edge...
In fact, scratch HHH and HBK off that list, as they have become too repetitive in recent months. They can come back once DX split up.
Alrighty folks, that's my first rant out of the way. Check back soon for my next post.
Peace out, yo!
Rollsy
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